Winners of “China Plus One” | Kazakhstan: The Rise of a Central Asian Supply-Chain Hub

By Li Da in Tokyo

Our “China Plus One” series now turns to Central Asia, beginning with Kazakhstan.

According to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade between China and Kazakhstan reached a record $48.7 billion in 2025, up 11% year on year. In the first quarter of 2026, trade rose another 46.6% to $13.2 billion.

Economic cooperation is also moving beyond traditional energy projects into digital infrastructure, green energy and finance. In June 2025, the two countries signed an upgraded bilateral investment agreement, expanding it from 12 to 39 provisions. The agreement took effect on June 27, 2026, providing a more stable framework for companies operating across the two markets.

In July 2026, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Shanghai, where more than 70 commercial agreements worth over $15 billion were signed.

For most of the past two decades, China–Kazakhstan cooperation centered on oil, metals, uranium and transport. The new wave of investment is broader: Kazakhstan is increasingly trying to connect resource extraction, manufacturing, logistics, digital infrastructure and finance into a more complete industrial chain.

From Mining to Processing

Kazakhstan is trying to move beyond simply exporting raw materials.

From the second quarter through July 2026, Chinese companies accelerated investment across Central Asia in copper and aluminum exploration and processing, with Kazakhstan emerging as one of the main destinations.

Hong Kong-based Xinhai Mining committed $65 million to jointly develop the Verkhuba copper deposit, with plans to acquire up to a 70% stake in stages. Under the agreement, primary copper materials will first be supplied to domestic smelters in Kazakhstan before refined cathode copper is exported through approved channels.

A separate green recycled-copper project in Aktobe, backed by Beijing Jinyi Yuanfang Holding with investment of about $100 million, has also entered construction. Designed to produce 25,000 tonnes of refined copper rod and cable products annually, the plant is scheduled to begin operations in 2027.

Chinese mining companies are also expanding their presence through the Astana International Financial Centre, or AIFC. The center uses an English common-law framework, permits 100% foreign ownership and imposes no currency controls, making it an important platform for long-term investment in the country’s mining sector.

The broader direction is clear: Kazakhstan wants more of the value chain to remain at home.

Beyond Oil and Metals

Energy remains the foundation of China–Kazakhstan economic ties, but green energy is becoming a new growth area.

On April 30, 2026, China Energy Engineering Corporation launched construction of a 500 MW wind-and-storage project in Kazakhstan’s Karaganda Region.

The project involves investment of around $573 million, combining 500 MW of wind power with a 150 MW/300 MWh energy-storage system. Once completed, it is expected to generate around 1.7 billion kWh of clean electricity annually.

For Kazakhstan, the project fits a broader strategy of reducing dependence on traditional energy while expanding wind, solar and storage capacity.

For Chinese companies, Kazakhstan offers a new market where energy infrastructure, industrial development and regional logistics increasingly overlap.

From Transit Corridor to Digital Hub

Kazakhstan’s ambitions extend beyond physical infrastructure.

On July 8, 2026, Beijing-based Guolian Corporation launched its IBI Kazakhstan Digital Economy Headquarters in Almaty. The project is designed to serve Central Asia and support cross-border digital trade, industrial internet services and supply-chain coordination along the Belt and Road.

At the launch ceremony, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration emphasized three priorities: expanding digital infrastructure, improving the business environment for export-oriented companies, and strengthening Kazakhstan’s role as a Eurasian transport hub.

The project signed 20 cooperation agreements covering non-ferrous metals, agriculture, energy, mining, equipment manufacturing, logistics and finance.

Kazakhstan is also accelerating the digitalization of domestic trade. In 2025, the country’s e-commerce transaction value reached 3.9 trillion tenge, or about $8.1 billion, accounting for roughly 15% of total retail sales.

The strategic goal is no longer simply to monetize geography.

Kazakhstan wants to become a country that can manage trade, logistics and industrial flows digitally across Eurasia.

Financial Integration Moves Forward

Financial connectivity is also deepening.

In June 2026, Kazakhstan completed its first sovereign Panda bond issuance in China, marking another step in bilateral financial cooperation. Industrial Bank and its wealth-management arm participated in the transaction, with a winning investment allocation of RMB100 million.

This development adds a financial layer to a relationship that was once dominated by commodities and transport infrastructure.

Kazakhstan’s transformation can therefore be understood as a shift from selling resources and geographic location to selling something more valuable: industrial integration, digital management and regional connectivity.

Its geography is fixed. Its ability to manage Eurasian trade flows is not.

That may become Kazakhstan’s most important advantage in the next phase of “China Plus One.”